What next for Google ad tech?

With the ad tech world abuzz with talk of Google spin offs, we’ve explored where the DOJ ad tech case might take Google - and these spin offs are just one possible part of the story.

The DOJ vs. Google ad tech case is coming to an end, with closing arguments due on 25 November, and a ruling in the following months. If the judge sides with the DOJ, then the court will later propose remedies, of which there are a multitude of possible permutations and nuances. The graphic shows a very top-level summary of scenarios we have developed in cooperation with ad tech competition law experts Dnes & Felver.

Publishers, ad tech vendors, agencies, and advertisers need to consider what outcome they would prefer: a heavily regulated Google ad server and ad exchange providing oxygen for rivals to gain market share? And/or divestment of the Google ad server and/or exchange, at risk of these children of Google diversifying and becoming an increasing competitive threat? And what about CTV, a large and growing market that may be outside the scope of the ‘open web display’ focus of the DOJ case?

Although any US remedies might not take effect for years due to appeals, now is a good time to start planning. There would be a period of consultation after any remedies are proposed. And parallel international competition processes may be faster moving, especially the CMA in the UK which has a lower bar for action than US courts and is considering a parallel case.